[14]:89 On November 13, the federal court ruled against an injunction. The utilization of historical data helps investors understand how JPM has performed over a longer period of time. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. Later in the evening, the networks reversed their call, moving to "too close to call", then later giving it to Bush; then they retracted that call as well, finally indicating the state was "too close to call". To accomplish this, we will analyze historical data and perform Monte Carlo simulations to determine dividend growth rate expectations for multiple scenarios. ", "COUNTING THE VOTE: DUVAL COUNTY; Democrats Rue Ballot Foul-Up In a 2nd County", "Panhandle Poll Follow-up: Networks' Wrong Florida Call for Gore Depressed Voter Turnout in Florida's Central Time Zone", "TV Guide Network's "25 Biggest TV Blunders" Special Delivers 3.3 Million Viewers and Becomes #1 Rated Special Among Women 25-54 [via press release from TV Guide Network]", "Letter to Senator Patrick Leahy, Chairman, U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary", "Examining the Vote; How Bush Took Florida: Mining the Overseas Absentee Vote", "COUNTING THE VOTE: THE ABSENTEE BALLOTS; Review Military Votes, Florida Attorney General Says", "Lieberman Put Democrats In Retreat on Military Vote", "NAACP and Florida Voters Reach Agreement with ChoicePoint in Voting Rights Lawsuit: ChoicePoint to Make Donation to NAACP and Reprocess Voter Exception List", "Study of disputed Florida ballots finds justices did not cast the deciding vote", "Miami 'Riot' Squad: Where Are They Now? [37] Because there was no clear indication of what the voters intended, those numbers were not included in the consortium's final tabulations. Sensitivity analysis is the process of analyzing individual variables/decisions to see how they impact an aspect of your businessone at a time. It utilizes a constant cash flow (dividend), an expected growth rate (shown in the dividend growth rate summary), and the investors expected return to derive a purchase price for a position (Figure 10). On November 13 the Gore campaign and Volusia and Palm Beach Counties sued to have the deadlines extended.[13]. "Statutes & Constitution :View Statutes: Online Sunshine", "Bush leads Gore by 327 votes in Florida recount, Associated Press reports", "A State Legislature Cannot Appoint Its Preferred Slate of Electors to Override the Will of the People After the Election", "Gore concedes presidential race after the fight of his life", "The Butterfly Ballot: Anatomy of a Disaster", "Florida's flawed "voter-cleansing" program", "Do Voting Rights Notification Laws Increase Ex-Felon Turnout? Conservative writer Andrew Sullivan in a contemporaneous article:[61]. 2A). At an NAACP-sponsored hearing in Miami four days after the election, prospective voters told of police cars blocking the way to the polls, of voters harassed by election workers. A key feature of scenarios is that they should challenge conventional wisdom about the future. The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly Furthermore, the study did not consider overvotes, ballots that registered more than one vote when counted by machine. Sensitivity Analysis. Aside from this case, also in dispute were the criteria that each county's canvassing board would use in examining the overvotes and/or undervotes. The "set aside" ballots were dimpled ballots that were challenged by the two parties. Sensitivity, to a first approximation, is this counterfactual relation: Ss belief that p is sensitive if and only if, if p were false, S would not believe that p. A sensitivity condition on knowledge was defended by Robert Nozick (1981). Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be A nationwide December 1421, 2000 Harris poll asked, "If everyone who tried to vote in Florida had their votes counted for the candidate who they thought they were voting forwith no misleading ballots and infallible voting machineswho do you think would have won the election, George W. Bush or Al Gore?". The Monte Carlo simulation for Scenario 2 show a much more normalized result (Figure 7). The decision was extremely controversial due to its partisan split and the majority's unusual instruction that its judgment in Bush v. Gore should not set precedent but should be "limited to the present circumstances". The flaw with this specific scenario is that the large variance due to the standard deviation creates a much less consistent expectancy for JPM going forward. The Court further held that it had "considerable uncertainty" as to the reasons given by the Florida Supreme Court for its decision. What is CVP Analysis? Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. Sauls also rejected Gore's contest of the election result on December 4, and Gore appealed that decision too. Preventing the canvassing boards from continuing to conduct recounts beyond the seven-day timeframe (specified in the law, but with ambiguity as to how firm it was intended to be), would "summarily disenfranchise innocent electors [voters]" and could not be allowed unless the recounts continued for so long as to "compromise the integrity of the electoral process." Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. Scenarios Example 18:59. [20] It was expected that had they been able to vote, most would have chosen the Democratic candidate. But were completely hardcore. the same name, a blank space or a historical or fictional name (1): the same name, a blank space or an uncertified person's name, the same name, a blank space, a historical or fictional name or an uncertified person's name. After that decision, the Bush campaign appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that the state court effectively rewrote state election statutes after the vote. What is scenario analysis? In order to normalize the assumptions for modeling, we can re-run the model to find the dividend growth rate while removing everything outside of the 95% confidence interval which are the variables outside of -2.1% to 29.7% (Figure 6). Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris's certification of the election results was thus upheld, allowing Florida's electoral votes to be cast for Bush, making him president-elect. Sensitivity Analysis vs. Officials in a majority of punch-card counties said they would accept a single-corner detached chad as an indicator of voter intent, and officials in a majority of optical scan counties said they would accept all affirmative marks as described in NORC codes as indicators of voter intent. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. Is this happening to you frequently? We attempted to establish diagnostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) That decision was announced on live worldwide television by the Florida Supreme Court's spokesman Craig Waters, the Court's public information officer. What is scenario analysis? The first step in the analysis is to determine the historical annual growth rate (Figure 4). In addition, some counties had provided an extra 432 total ballots, while others produced 1333 fewer ballots than expected. 5.1 Sensitivity. The Monte Carlo simulation for Scenario 1 inputs the median and standard deviation from the historical data of Scenario 1 (Figure 5). two-coder general agreement for punch card ballots. To some, voting is a right that should be guaranteed regardless of any incompetence, error, failure, or irresponsibility on the part of the voter. The U.S. Supreme Court convened on December 1 to consider Bush's appeal. The Gore campaign requested that disputed ballots in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Volusia Counties be counted by hand. Our goal at Six-Five Research is to incorporate both quantitative and qualitative analysis into better investment decisions. Escambia County also reported completing its recount that day but did not include all of its precincts. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Utilizing quantitative methods for investment decisions is intended to help mitigate risk. "[53], The ballot had been redesigned earlier that year by Theresa LePore (Supervisor of Elections and member of the Democratic Party). Figure 9. Controversies included: Many voters in Palm Beach County who intended to vote for Gore actually marked their ballots for Pat Buchanan or spoiled their ballots because they found the ballot's layout to be confusing. In punchcard counties, 1 in 25 ballots had uncountable presidential votes. Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. A Gordon Growth Model can determine the intrinsic value of constantly growing payments. This represents a much smaller right skew since the values are closer together. Gore said he disagreed with the Court's decision, but conceded the election. JPM showcases a strong dividend grade according to Seeking Alpha (Figure 2) with a phenomenal 5 year growth rate and a very healthy payout ratio. The county-level variance from the total number of ballots was 0.76%. Using historical data and Monte Carlo simulations, we can estimate potential future growth rates for investment decisions. On November 11, it joined a group of Florida voters in suing in federal district court for a preemptive injunction to stop all manual recounting of votes in Florida. On December 12, the same day as the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, the Florida House approved awarding the state's electoral votes to Bush, but the matter was moot after the Court's ruling. The ballot displayed the list of presidential running-mate pairs alternately across two adjacent pages, with a column of punch spaces down the middle. Such explanations did little to lessen the sense of anger among black Democrats. It is important to observe these historical trends and note that the business of JPM has altered and developed over this representation of time. Uncertainty in risk assessment can be present in the characterization of the exposure scenario, the parameter estimates, and model predictions. The 1st United States Congress provided the detailed organization of a federal judiciary through the Judiciary Act of 1789.The Supreme Court, the country's highest judicial tribunal, was to sit in the nation's Capital and would initially be composed of a chief justice and five associate justices. Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets.It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). The final step is to determine how investors can utilize this information to determine entrance points for JPM based off their expectation of returns. Orange County total of 512 properly filled ballots not read by machine on November 8, 2000. If the p-value becomes 0.03 under this scenario, then the results are robust. The lack of certainty in the premises and inputs brings about investment risk. The Florida Statutes contemplate that where electronic or electromechanical voting systems are used, no vote is to be declared invalid or void if there is a clear indication of the intent of the voter as determined by the county canvassing board. [80] A Gore win was impossible without a recount of overvotes, which he did not request; however, faxes between Judge Terry Lewis and the canvassing boards throughout the state indicated that Lewis, who oversaw the recount effort, intended to have overvotes counted.[77]. Sensitivity Analysis. Four counties distributed sample ballots to voters that differed from the actual ballot used on election day, including Duval County, which used a caterpillar ballot, so called because the list of presidential candidates stretched over two pages. Florida state law at the time allowed a candidate to request a manual recount by protesting the results of at least three precincts. Unlike the other 20 counties, Palm Beach and Pasco Counties determined voter intent on 74 overvotes for Gore and Bush; however, they did not include them in their certified results. Bush's name appeared at the top of the ballot, sparing most Bush voters from error. For example, 21,188 of the Florida overvotes, or nearly one-fifth of the total, originated from Duval County, where the presidential ballot was split across two pages and voters were instructed to "vote every page". JPM is often showcased as a good dividend stock by many dividend focused investors. At 4:00p.m. EST on December 8, the Florida Supreme Court, by a 4 to 3 vote, rejected Gore's original four-county approach and ordered a manual recount, under the supervision of the Leon County Circuit Court and Leon County Elections Supervisor Ion Sancho, of all undervoted ballots in all Florida counties (except Broward, Palm Beach and Volusia) and the portion of Miami-Dade county in which such a recount was not already complete. Following the machine recount, the Gore campaign requested a manual recount in four counties. Prevailing standard: requires at least one corner of chad detached on punch card undervotes; any affirmative mark on optical scan ballots; includes overvotes. On December 8, the Florida justices, by a 43 vote, rejected the selective use of manual recounts in just four counties and ordered immediate manual recounts of all ballots in the state where no vote for president had been machine-recorded, also known as undervotes. The CAGR rates discussed could also be used for investors to determine their buying price in exactly the same manner based on their personal assumptions. [75] Among the nearly 85,000 Votomatic overvotes in the sample, there were only 721 reclaimable votes confirmed in the NORC study. In a world of uncertainty, scenarios are intended to explore alternatives that may significantly alter the basis for business-as-usual assumptions. Miami-Dade County decided on November 17 to conduct a recount but suspended it on November 22. [2] Gore phoned Bush the night of the election to concede, then retracted his concession after learning how close the Florida count was.[3]. Some media reports focused on undervotes (chad blocked hole, wrong ink or pencil used, partial oval mark not detected, humidity affected scanner, ballot feeder misalignment), while others also included overvotes (hole punched or oval filled plus a write-in name, other multi-marked ballots). Where a ballot is so marked as to plainly indicate the voter's choice and intent, it should be counted as marked unless some positive provision of law would be violated. The first step in modeling the future dividend of JPM is to analyze their historical performance. Only a fourth of the variance consisted of optical ballots. The lack of certainty in the premises and inputs brings about investment risk. According to the study, 3146 (3%) of the 111,261 examined overvotes "contained clear and therefore legally valid votes not counted in any of the manual recounts during the dispute. do not count any votes for the marked candidate (9): count votes for the punched candidate if the write-in is an uncertified person's name, On November 8, Florida Division of Elections staff prepared a press release for Secretary of State. [78] The post-controversy recounts revealed that, "if a manual recount had been limited to undervotes, it would have produced an inaccurate picture of the electorate's position."[4]. Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) The World Factbook. When Palm Beach County completed its recount two hours after the certification deadline, its final count was Gore 501 votes, Bush 327 votes excluded from the state certified total. The 1st United States Congress provided the detailed organization of a federal judiciary through the Judiciary Act of 1789.The Supreme Court, the country's highest judicial tribunal, was to sit in the nation's Capital and would initially be composed of a chief justice and five associate justices. Numerous local court rulings went both ways, some ordering recounts because the vote was so close and others declaring that a selective manual recount in a few heavily Democratic counties would be unfair. They are a critical way to assess the impact, effect or influence of key assumptions or variationssuch as different methods of analysis, definitions of outcomes, protocol deviations, missing data, and The organization analyzed 61,190 undervotes and 113,820 overvotes. [74] These ballots contained undervotes (votes with no choice made for president) and overvotes (votes made with more than one choice marked). The next day, Gore sued under Florida's statutory construct of the "contest phase". The intent of this article is to value JPM for long-term dividend focused investors. To understand scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on a set of assumptions and inputs. By a 54 vote the justices reversed and remanded the case to the Florida Supreme Court "for further proceedings not inconsistent with this opinion", prior to the optional "safe harbor" deadline which the Florida court had said the state intended to meet. 4: Final level of data validation FMVA Required 2.5h Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis in Excel . As the state has moved toward electronic voting, nothing in this evolution has diminished the standards first articulated in such [judicial] decisions that the intent of the voter is of paramount concern and should be given effect if the voter has complied with the statutory requirement and that intent may be determined. The dividend data in this analysis was pulled from the JPM dividend history on the firms website (Figure 3). Linear model that uses a polynomial to model curvature. The same day, a state judge upheld that deadline but ruled that further recounts could be considered later. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. JPM is a dividend contender and a large firm that is embedded into American businesses making it an ideal candidate. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. Undervotes from punch-card counties give new votes to candidates in roughly the same proportion as the county's official vote. Further, counties and precincts with large black populations disproportionately had technologies where ballots would predictably go uncounted. Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets.It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). 13. [21] Additionally, this Florida election produced many more "overvotes" than usual, especially in predominantly African-American precincts in Duval County (Jacksonville), where some 21,000 ballots had multiple markings, such as two or more choices for president. Brady, Henry E.; Collier, David (2004). The results of this tally were to be added to the November 26 tally. Scenario analysis is sometimes confused with sensitivity analysis. The fast-growth scenario somewhat overestimates current emissions, but when combined with a slightly lower climate sensitivity it provides an estimate of early-2000s warming close to observed values.
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